Planning

State Transportation Board approves Five-Year Construction Program

State Transportation Board approves Five-Year Construction Program

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State Transportation Board approves Five-Year Construction Program

State Transportation Board approves Five-Year Construction Program

June 26, 2013

ADOT Five-Year Transportation Facilities Construction Program Final Draft Cover

The State Transportation Board voted yesterday to formally adopt the 2014-2018 Five-Year Transportation Facilities Construction Program…

Readers of the ADOT Blog will remember that this is the plan that was up for public comment between March and May. It’s also what we’ve in the past referred to as a, “blueprint for ADOT that details where, when and how regional, state and federal funding will be spent for projects over the next five years to improve our state’s transportation infrastructure.”

After conducting three public hearings and considering the comments of about 1,300 people across Arizona, the board made its decision during their meeting yesterday in Phoenix. The finalized plan now determines which projects will move forward in Greater Arizona while allocating dedicated funding to preservation of Arizona’s existing highway system over the next five years. In addition, four major projects will move forward in the Pima County region and 15 major projects will advance in the Maricopa County region using, in part, funding generated by those regions.

The board wrestled with some tough choices about how to fund major projects and still preserve the existing highway system. This year, the proposed projects for Greater Arizona drew a tremendous amount of interest and comment from communities across Arizona. Due to a major decline in transportation funding, the Arizona Department of Transportation must reduce the 2014-2018 Five-Year Program by a total of $350 million statewide and will move toward preserving existing highway infrastructure. This significant reduction in funding means fewer expansion projects will move forward, particularly in Greater Arizona.

A, B or C?

As part of the public comment process for the Five-Year Program, ADOT developed three scenarios to address how to fund projects in Greater Arizona with limited money.

Scenario A focused on allocating the majority of funding to preservation. Scenario B focused on moving major projects forward with the available funding. Scenario C focused on a combination of preservation and major projects. Ultimately, the board adopted a modified version of Scenario C.

The following is the list of projects for Greater Arizona during the 2014-2018 Five-Year Program. The first item includes a project that was approved by the board to be accelerated to the current fiscal year (FY 2013):

  • State Route 89, Deep Well Ranch Road to South Chino Valley: On June 14, the board voted to accelerate this highway widening project from FY 2014 to FY 2013, placing it in the current Five-Year Program. This is a $25 million project that will be funded with unexpended money from other ADOT highway projects.
  • Interstate 10, Ehrenberg Port of Entry, Phase One: $8 million allocated in FY 2014 for technology improvements.
  • US 95, Fortuna Wash Bridge Construction: $1.5 million allocated in FY 2014 for design and $13.5 million allocated in FY 2015 for construction.
  • State Route 260, Lion Springs Section: Will be reduced from $40 million to $5 million, which will be allocated in FY 2018 for design work on this widening project. The $35 million previously allocated for this project will now go toward pavement preservation.
  • US 60, Silver King Section and Superior Streets: $45 million accelerated from FY 2016 to FY 2015 for this widening project.
  • State Route 260, Interstate 17 to Thousand Trails: $4 million allocated in FY 2014 for scoping and $62 million allocated in FY 2016 for construction of this widening project.

More about the plan

The Five-Year Program is updated annually. Each program begins with a long-range visioning process, moves into a more realistic 20-year plan and finally yields each Five-Year Program. The program is developed by working closely with local planning organizations and community leaders to identify ready-to-construct or design projects.

Funding for the Five-Year Program is generated by the users of transportation services, primarily through the gasoline tax and the vehicle license tax.

For more on the plan, re-visit some of our previous blog posts, or check out ADOT’s website.

Flagstaff to host third public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

Flagstaff to host third public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

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Flagstaff to host third public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

Flagstaff to host third public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

May 2, 2013

ADOT's Tentative 2014-2018 Five-Year transportation Facilities Construction program

There’s just one more public hearing for ADOT’s Five-Year Construction Program and the meeting is coming up soon…

It’s scheduled 9 a.m. May 10 at the Flagstaff City Council Chambers, 211 W. Aspen Ave., in Flagstaff.

But, don’t worry if you can’t make it. There are other ways to comment and there’s still some time to give your feedback before the State Transportation Board considers adopting the final program at its June 14 meeting in Pinetop-Lakeside.

Just remember, all public comments must be received by May 17 to be considered by the Board.

If you’d like to give your thoughts on the plan, here are some options:

The Five-Year Construction Program is a blueprint for ADOT that details where, when and how regional, state and federal funding will be spent for projects over the next five years to improve our state’s transportation infrastructure.

For more on the tentative program, you can check out our website to read the plan, view the how-to-read-it guide and learn more.

Tucson to host second public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

Tucson to host second public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

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Tucson to host second public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

Tucson to host second public hearing for ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program

April 4, 2013

ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Program Public Hearing Dates

It’s almost time for the next public hearing on ADOT’s tentative Five-Year Construction Program

This one is scheduled for 9 a.m. on April 12 in Tucson. The meeting will be held in the Pascua Yaqui Justice Center in the Albert V. Garcia Auditorium, 7777 S. Camino Huivism, Building C.

But if you can’t make it, don’t worry – there are plenty of other ways to comment. Here are a few of your options:

More on the tentative program 

The Five-Year Construction Program is a blueprint for ADOT that details where, when and how regional, state and federal funding will be spent for projects over the next five years to improve our sate’s transportation infrastructure.

However, some tough decisions are ahead. For the 2014-2018 Five-Year Program (which is still a tentative program right now), ADOT has determined that $350 million must be cut due to stagnant revenue from the gas and vehicle license taxes and from decreased federal funding.

As a result, the 2014-2018 Five-Year Construction Program reflects a major focus on preserving our existing state highway system while moving some programmed projects forward. Other programmed projects in the five-year plan will need to be delayed to future years due to significantly less funding.

We encourage you to visit the ADOT website to take a look at the tentative plan. There you’ll also find information on three different scenarios

It’s important that you do provide feedback because the State Transportation Board will consider all public comments that are received by May 17 before adopting the final 2014-2018 Five-Year Program at its June 14 meeting in Pinetop-Lakeside.

ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Construction Program available for comment

ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Construction Program available for comment

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ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Construction Program available for comment

ADOT's Tentative Five-Year Construction Program available for comment

March 7, 2013

ADOT's tentative Five-Year Construction Program is
available online HERE.

ADOT’s tentative Five-Year Construction Program is now online and available for your review and comments.

But before you go and have a look, we want to let you know that this year’s draft is a little different from what you've seen in the past…

Yes, the Five-Year Construction Program still serves as a blueprint for ADOT.

And, just like it has in previous years, the plan details where, when and how regional, state and federal funding will be spent for projects over the next five years to improve our sate’s transportation infrastructure.

However, for this year’s plan (which is still a tentative program right now), ADOT has determined that $350 million must be cut due to stagnant revenue from the gas and vehicle license taxes and from decreased federal funding.

As a result, the 2014-2018 Five-Year Construction Program reflects a major focus on preserving our existing state highway system while moving some programmed projects forward.

Other programmed projects in the five-year plan will need to be delayed to future years due to significantly less funding.

Preserving our system means protecting our investment of $18.4 billion – this is the value of the state highway system through monies spent on expansion, modernization and preservation projects.

What this means…

Over the next five years, there will be less focus on expansion of the system statewide. This is the first Five-Year Program that will reflect this dramatic change for the agency.

This issue will be present in 2013, but will become much more pronounced by 2016, when $250 million will be cut from the program, and in 2017, when an additional $100 million will be cut from the program.

“We are at a crossroads,” said ADOT Director John Halikowski. “The time has come to make some tough decisions about how to spend our limited transportation dollars. We are standing at a wide funding gap between the need for future transportation options and the reality of insufficient funds to pay for them. We need to move forward with a plan that focuses on preserving the good work we’ve done in creating a state highway system that connects communities and economies.”

public-hearing-dates

The State Transportation Board will conduct public hearings to allow for additional community input.

What’s your opinion?
The public comment period for the Tentative Five-Year Program is now under way. As ADOT moves toward a preservation-based system, there are three scenarios that are being considered for implementation. All three scenarios are available for public comment:

  • Scenario A – Focus on Preservation: This scenario focuses the most investment on keeping the existing highway system in good repair with the least investment in programmed major projects in greater Arizona. There would be 81 preservation projects from 2014 to 2016, 39 bridge projects, one major project and 690 miles of pavement projects. An average of $184 million per year in preservation from 2014 through 2018 would be allocated. Arizona’s interstate system is projected to fall below current standards for pavement quality in 2031 with this scenario.
  • Scenario B – Focus on Programmed Major Projects: This scenario focuses the most investment on major projects that are programmed in greater Arizona with the lowest investment in keeping existing highways in good repair through preservation. There would be nine major projects from 2014 to 2017. From 2014 to 2016, there would be 25 bridge projects and 458 miles of pavement projects. An average of $142 million per year in preservation from 2014 to 2018 would be allocated. Arizona’s interstate system is projected to fall below current standards for pavement quality in 2017 with this scenario.
  • Scenario C – Combination of Preservation and Major Projects: This scenario focuses on some investment in major projects that are programmed in greater Arizona with less investment in keeping existing highways in good repair. There would be four major projects from 2014 to 2017, 39 bridge projects from 2014 to 2018 and 524 miles of pavement projects. An average of $149 million per year in preservation from 2014 to 2018 would be allocated. Arizona’s interstate system is projected to fall below current standards for pavement quality in 2021 with this scenario.

How to comment

ADOT welcomes feedback and has provided the following options to submit your comments:

The State Transportation Board will consider all public comments received by May 17. Public hearings will be conducted on March 8 in Phoenix, April 12 in Tucson and May 10 in Flagstaff to allow for additional community input (see details above). The board is expected to adopt the final 2014-2018 Five-Year Program at the June 14 meeting in Pinetop-Lakeside.

Travel demand models help plan for the future

Travel demand models help plan for the future

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Travel demand models help plan for the future

Travel demand models help plan for the future

January 11, 2012

Travel demand models give planners an idea of what future traffic patterns might look like.

Short of a time machine, travel demand models might just be the next best thing for taking a glimpse at the future of our transportation system.

So, what is a travel demand model?

Technically speaking, travel demand models are planning analysis tools that use statistical, econometric and mathematical algorithms to represent transportation system conditions and predict travel behavior response to those conditions.

Less technically speaking, a travel demand model consists of a series of interlinking computer programs that use statistics and demographic information to forecast current and future transportation system conditions.

That means ADOT can plug in data -- info like how many people live and work in various communities -- and the model will forecast the trips taken by drivers and transit passengers, where they’re going and what roads and transit services are being used. Basically, it gives planners a good idea of what future traffic patterns might look like and traffic’s impact upon air quality. (You might remember we talked before about modeling and predictions related to air quality.)

“It’s a planning tool that we use to anticipate traffic changes,” said Keith Killough, ADOT’s assistant director for travel demand modeling and analysis, adding that the model gives the decision-makers the information they need to make informed choices on transportation policies, plans, projects, and programs.

That’s because the model can actually run “what-if” scenarios by taking proposed changes (things like extra lanes, tolls, or new freeways) into account and give planners a realistic idea of what the alterations will do to traffic. This helps ADOT make decisions without costly trial and error implementations. In the past, planners had to rely solely on trend projections which generally do not consider capacity and growth constraints.

According to Killough, the key to better, accurate modeling results is to start with better, accurate data. He works closely with the Arizona State Demographer’s Office (in the Department of Administration) and utilizes data and assistance from throughout ADOT (particularly ITD, MVD, TSG, and ITG). Household statistics, employment data, travel surveys and more are taken into consideration.

The travel demand model is based on a lot of data and many different fields of science …

“It is complex, but still a very educated guess,” Killough said.

To make sure the model is producing the most accurate complete picture possible, the results are regularly checked and validated. Traffic counts help with this process.

For even more on how ADOT uses travel demand modeling, check out the Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) page.

State Transportation Board 101

State Transportation Board 101

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State Transportation Board 101

State Transportation Board 101

December 1, 2011
Blog Default

ADOT’s Long-Range Transportation Plan was formally adopted earlier this month.

You might remember that we blogged about the plan and wrote about the successful outreach effort used to help shape the plan.

ADOT planners will now use the Long-Range Transportation Plan as a guide to build a transportation system designed to carry Arizona into the future!

But just who is this group – otherwise known as the State Transportation Board – that adopted the plan?

The State Transportation Board is made up of seven members appointed by the Governor. Six of the members are chosen to represent a specific transportation district and one serves at large. Board members serve a term of six years each.

In addition to serving in an advisory capacity to the ADOT Director, the Transportation Board is granted specific policy powers and duties, including:

  • Responsibility for establishing a complete system of state highway routes and determining which state highway routes are accepted into the state highway system and which state highway routes are to be improved.
  • Final authority on establishing, opening, relocating, altering, vacating, or abandoning any portion of a state route or state highway, including establishment of parkways and historic and scenic roadways.
  • Awarding construction contracts and monitoring the status of construction projects.

And it doesn’t end with roads… the Transportation Board also:

  • distributes the money appropriated from the State Aviation Fund for planning, design, development, land acquisition, construction and improvement of publicly owned airport facilities;
  • approves airport construction;
  • has the exclusive authority to issue revenue bonds for financing needed transportation improvements throughout the state;
  • determines priority program planning with respect to transportation facilities;
  • annually adopts the five-year construction program;
  • and, as we mentioned earlier, adopts the Long-Range Transportation Plan.

The board typically meets once a month and its meetings are open to the public. For more about the board, or to check out the minutes of past meetings, visit the State Transportation Board.

Transportation decisions driven by traffic counts

Transportation decisions driven by traffic counts

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Transportation decisions driven by traffic counts

Transportation decisions driven by traffic counts

November 29, 2011

An ADOT tech checks out a continuous traffic counting station.

You’d be amazed by how much there is to learn just by counting cars (yes, cars…not cards!)…

Traffic counts are exactly what the name implies – physical counts of the traffic on a particular road – and ADOT takes them at approximately 1,400 locations around Arizona.

These counts not only tell ADOT how many cars are traveling on the state’s transportation system, but the sophisticated equipment used also determines vehicle speed, weight and classification.

The result is a continual stream of numbers … lots and lots of numbers!

Numbers that ADOT traffic engineers use to make better, informed choices.

Think about it … it would be nearly impossible to design an effective freeway if you don’t know how many people are going to be driving on it. And, you can’t design a safe road if you don’t know the expected load the pavement’s going to have to handle day in and day out.

“This drives decisions,” said ADOT’s Assistant Director of Roadway Inventory Pradeep Tiwari. “It is a critical prerequisite to decision-making.”

Short-term-data-counting-station

Short-term stations typically generate about 48 hours of data.

In addition to aiding transportation planning and design, traffic counts are required of each state by the Federal Highway Administration and help determine the apportionment of federal highway and planning funds. They’re also a necessary factor in determining air quality measurements.

There’s an interest in these numbers outside of government, too. Developers, businesses, property owners, academia and even cell phone companies rely on this information to help make a number of decisions.

In other words, knowing as much as we can about how our roads are being used is pretty important …

“It’s like taking our pulse rate,” ADOT Planner Mark Catchpole says of traffic counts. “Without taking our pulse, we don’t know whether we’re well or sick.”

Collecting the data

ADOT collects traffic count data at approximately 1,400 locations throughout the state’s 6,700-mile highway system.

Of those 1,400 locations, 175 are a continuous traffic counting station, which means they’re receiving and sending data 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year. The remaining locations take short-term traffic counts (generally 48 hours worth of data).

Pneumatic-road-tubes

Pneumatic road tubes are used at
some locations

To get an accurate account of the traffic volume in all areas of the system, the information gained through continuous counts is compiled with the short-term figures to determine annual daily averages. This also helps ADOT factor in and make adjustments for seasonal traffic variations to get the best, most accurate idea possible of what’s happening out on the roads.

Traffic counters

Chances are you probably won’t even realize you’re being counted.

The 175 continuous traffic counting stations utilize magnetic induction loops (sensors) that are embedded in the roadway. Those sensors relay information to a nearby station (they look like traffic signal cabinets mounted on poles and powered by a solar cell). The information is interpreted by software and can be read off-site by ADOT employees.

embedded-loop

Embedded loops are used to gather data.

The short-term stations work in a similar way. Some have the embedded loops, while other spots utilize pneumatic road tubes to serve the same function as the loops.

The short-term stations are less visible – crews must either place a battery-operated traffic counter machine in a roadside pull box that is connected to the loop sensors or chain it to a signpost if connected to a road tube.

Reporting the data

All of this data is available to the public online. For more information on traffic counts, visit the ADOT Data and Analysis webpage.

ADOT Aeronautics Group oversees airport pavement program, wins national award

ADOT Aeronautics Group oversees airport pavement program, wins national award

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ADOT Aeronautics Group oversees airport pavement program, wins national award

ADOT Aeronautics Group oversees airport pavement program, wins national award

September 28, 2011

This chart can be found in the
2010 APMS update executive summary.

Smooth takeoffs and easy landings require airport runways that are maintained and cared for … because no pilot (or passenger) wants to hit a pothole on the taxiway.

But, keeping an airport’s pavement in good condition takes some vigilance – extreme temperatures, wear from heavy loads and age can all take their toll on pavement. Smaller, publicly owned airports in the state might not have the budget, or the manpower, to handle needed repairs.

That’s where the Arizona Airport Pavement Management System steps in …

ADOT’s Aeronautics Group, part of the Multimodal Planning Division, runs the program that evaluates pavement conditions of airports in the state and helps fund maintenance and restoration projects. The APMS got its start in 2000 to help monitor the conditions of Arizona ’s airport system (a multi-million dollar investment of public and private funds) and assist in the preservation of its infrastructure.

How it works …

Every three years ADOT’s Aeronautics Group facilitates the survey of all 52 publicly owned/public use airports that participate in the state’s pavement management program. The pavement is inspected at each of the airports to determine the conditions of the runways, taxiways, T-hangars, aprons and helipads.

To give you an idea of how much pavement we’re talking about, according to the most recent Arizona Airport Pavement Management System Update, 140.3 million square feet of pavement was inspected in 2010 – that’s the equivalent of a two-lane highway stretching from Phoenix to Seattle, Washington!

Each airport is given a “score” called a Pavement Condition Index. That PCI number ranges from 0-100 and can mean major rehabilitation is needed or just some routine maintenance.

From there, that information is put into a database. Each airport gets a copy of all the information, including airport histories, maps, photos, tutorial information for the airports regarding PCI methods, maintenance planning and documentation.

Not only does this information help the airport’s staff take some next steps, but it also satisfies a public law that states any airport receiving any federal funding has to have a pavement maintenance program in place (this is a requirement for state grants, too).

ADOT’s Aeronautics Group looks at all the recommended projects from the survey and prioritizes them into a 5-8 year plan.

Then the work gets started!

ADOT’s Aeronautics Group hires a consultant for design and construction management for the top priority projects. Next, ADOT’s procurement office advertises the project for construction bids.

Airports only pay 10 percent of the construction costs and the Aeronautics Group funds the rest. (For a little more information on how the state aviation fund works, check out this blog post.)

State Airport Engineer Holly Hawkins says the program helps airports maintain their investment and having a consistent program that allows all the data to be gathered in one place, really helps with funding decisions, too.

Historically, this program has used about $3-4 million for pavement preservation projects each year, but ADOT's Aeronautics Manager Michael Klein says this fiscal year that number could increase to about $7-8 million. The funding increase is attributed to the program's recent hiatus due to budget cuts. Klein says there is some catching up to do.

National recognition …

The program recently earned significant recognition from the National Association of State Aviation Officials. The APMS earned the 2011 Most Innovative State Program Award earlier this month. According to the NASAO newsletter, the award was established to recognize truly unique and service-oriented state aviation programs.

It was also noted that, “the statewide system focus allows consistent application, economy of scale and maximum efficiency in evaluation, recommendations, design and programming.”

Klein says the award reflects the effort of the department…  

“It’s just recognition for a lot of hard work from folks here,” Klein said.

More on ADOT’s Aeronautics Group can be found on the group’s webpage.

Research Center guides ADOT toward transportation innovation

Research Center guides ADOT toward transportation innovation

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Research Center guides ADOT toward transportation innovation

Research Center guides ADOT toward transportation innovation

August 8, 2011

The ADOT Research Center studies ways to improve transportation in Arizona.

Much has changed since ADOT got its start in 1927.

Back then, the agency was known as the Arizona State Highway Department and roads certainly were built a little differently. Methods, materials and technology have changed so much since then.

Amazingly, they’re still evolving today …

ADOT keeps up with transportation advancements through research. The ADOT Research Center oversees that research, which is aimed at improving all aspects of transportation in the state and beyond.

But, don’t think the studies and research produced by this team just sit on a shelf once completed.

The information generated by ADOT’s Research Center focuses on evaluating new materials and methods. ADOT’s researchers look at developing design and analysis techniques and study the underlying causes of transportation problems.

In other words, this research leads to better methods, innovative practices and new ways of doing things, giving Arizonans a better value when it comes to transportation!

To get an idea of how this research ends up influencing the way ADOT operates, take a look at the seven emphasis areas within the ADOT Research Center :

  • The Environment emphasis explores the interaction between transportation and the environment. Studies from this discipline look at air quality policy, emissions reduction, transportation-generated noise, wildlife and other environmental topics.
  • The Maintenance emphasis researches how to enhance the maintenance and operation of roadways. A recent study is evaluating the effects of snowplow and deicing chemicals on rubberized asphalt pavements.
  • Materials and Construction studies scrutinize the products and methods used in constructing roads. One study from this emphasis provided research into the noise reduction properties of rubberized asphalt.
  • Research within the Structures emphasis area aims to apply effective modern technology and resources to enhance the implementation of bridge management systems, including the repair of over-stressed bridge decks.
  • Traffic and Safety research not only investigates engineering principles to help solve traffic problems, but it often takes into account the psychology and habits of drivers. Research projects have included a study on seat belt usage in Arizona.
  • Intelligent Transportation Systems analyzes ways to integrate advanced communication technologies into transportation infrastructure. Study topics have included freeway ramp metering, electronic message signs and emerging technology.
  • The Planning and Administration discipline looks to our transportation future – how ADOT can best meet travelers’ needs as the population grows, our society evolves and technology offers more options. This emphasis also addresses organizational issues within ADOT. One ongoing study within this emphasis will report on how new media can bolster ADOT’s community outreach.

There’s much more to learn about this team. Visit the Research Center’s webpage for additional information and stay tuned. In the future we’ll blog about the ADOT Research Center ’s library and product evaluation program.

Big construction projects call for detailed plans

Big construction projects call for detailed plans

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Big construction projects call for detailed plans

Big construction projects call for detailed plans

August 3, 2011

ADOT's Contracts and Specifications office handles project plans. These came in at about 1,700 pages!

Our communication team moved offices recently, and when I walked into our new building this morning, this is what I saw…

Having no idea what this wall of giant blue tubes was, I decided to do a little poking around and share what I could find out here on the blog.

Luckily, I didn’t need to go very far to get the answer.

Right next door to where I work is ADOT’s Contracts and Specifications office. There, I talked with support staff, who told me the blue tubes are actually construction plans that are rolled up and ready to go to contractors. These specific plans are for a project that will construct a six-mile stretch of Loop 303 between Mountain View Boulevard and Peoria Avenue (by the way, we’ll have more details on this project in a blog post planned for Aug. 11).

Since that project is so comprehensive, the plans are pretty big – roughly 1,700 pages! Plans for other ADOT projects are housed in the Contracts and Specifications office, too. Not all projects are of this scale, so most of the plans are smaller than what’s pictured above.

The Loop 303 project has already been awarded to a contractor and work is under way, but most of the plans in the office are for projects that recently have been advertised by ADOT for bids.

Plans are printed before a project is advertised for bids. Construction companies interested in working with ADOT to build that project will purchase these plans to help them put together a detailed bid, or estimate. Based on the bids, projects are awarded by the State Transportation Board. The company awarded the project and ADOT staff members working on the project get whatever plans are remaining.

(Just a note … not all projects follow this timeline. Some projects utilize alternate methods of delivery such as construction-manager-at-risk or design-build.)

Project plans contain anything and everything a contractor would need to know, from basic project information – what needs to be built and where – to the more technical standard drawings and project-related specifics. Depending on the type of project, plans might also include information on the number of lanes, drainage, landscaping, bridges and signals.

So, there you have it! Who would have thought the mystery of “blue tubes” would lead to so much information?